The Random Walk
The first post starts with the random walk. A random walk is essentially the cumulative sum of independently distributed random variables. For the forecastin...
Recent Posts
The Limitations of the Forecast
In mid-2020, Andrew Gelman, G. Elliott Morris and I released a forecasting model for the 2020 General Election in the U.S. published by The Economist. The mo...
Mail ballot rejection rates in North Carolina
Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, record numbers of voters will vote by mail in the General Election in 2020. Voting by mail is generally a safe way from...