Recent Posts

The Random Walk

7 minute read

The first post starts with the random walk. A random walk is essentially the cumulative sum of independently distributed random variables. For the forecastin...

The Limitations of the Forecast

1 minute read

In mid-2020, Andrew Gelman, G. Elliott Morris and I released a forecasting model for the 2020 General Election in the U.S. published by The Economist. The mo...